Since the infamous 1984 House election that was decided by a mere four votes, Indiana’s Eighth District has been a swing district that is fiercely fought for every two years. Former Sheriff Brad Ellsworth’s recent 24% victory over incumbent Republican Congressman John Hostettler, however, may herald a new era of less competitive races for this seat. Ellsworth’s strong fundraising ability, culturally conservative and fiscally conservative views combined with his telegenic presence will likely help him lock down this swing district. The Eighth’s departure from its perennial spot on competitive House seat lists will leave a void for another microcosmic, marginal district; that is, in fact, another one called the “Eighth”, North Carolina’s Eighth District, to be precise.
The 8th has had a political history. The District shifted hands in 1960, 1968, 1974 and 1998 and it had close races in 1984, 1988, 1994 and in 2006. This district is naturally polarized between the Central North Carolina Counties that are ancestrally Republican and the Eastern Counties that are full of Yellow Dog Democrats. The population parity of the Republican Textile Counties and the more Democratic rural counties contribute to the close elections in this district. The 2000 Almanac of American Politics notes the 1998 court ordered re-redistricting plan removed conservative Iredell, Moore and Rowan counties from the 8th district and replaced them with predominately Democratic precincts. This move was meant to shore up Rep. Bill Hefner (D), who instead decided to retire in 1998.
His replacement was textile owner Republican Robin Hayes who won an open seat in a tough political environment for Republicans by 51%-49% over an underfunded political neophyte. Hayes then faced a rematch against Democrat Mike Taylor in 2000. Hayes exploited the political advantage of running as a Southern Republican in a Presidential election and he used pork barrel projects to court public favor en route to a 11% victory. Hayes wasn’t safe yet. The Democratic legislature added even more of Democratic Mecklenburg County and the Democrats nominated a local lawyer named Chris Kouri. Kouri and Hayes’ 2004 opponent lacked resources, charisma and experience.
Rep. Hayes’ low key nature helped him stay below the political radar of National Democrats, but unlike nearly all Southern Republican Congressman, Hayes’ district actually trended Democratic in the 2000’s – Bush’s victory percentage declined by 2% in 2004, despite going up by 3% nationally.
The 2006 election created a proverbial perfect storm for Democrats, but it later became a missed opportunity. In early 2005, the Congress voted 217-215 to approve the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), which put many North Carolinan textile workers at risk. The deciding vote was cast by a Congressman named Robin Hayes, whose controversial vote left him vulnerable back at home. Instead of targeting Hayes, who occupies a a marginal district, Democrats ignored it and focused on helping former NFL player Heath Shuler in his run against GOP Rep. Charles Taylor. Taylor had won reelection in 2004 by a similar margin to Hayes, but he occupied an even more Republican district. The reason why the DCCC targeted the 11th and not the 8th was likely candidate recruitment.
After Iraq War Vet Tim Dunn announced his bid for Congress in the 8th, Rahm Emanuel and the DCCC pledged their full support. Dunn’s campaign was plagued by fundraising troubles and he eventually dropped out before the primary. The remaining viable candidate in the district was a “Fourth tiered recruit” named Larry Kissell. Kissell was an 8th grade geography teacher, and ironically, a former textile worker. Kissell’s matchup vs. the former textile owner was a David vs. Goliath race in more ways than one. Hayes enjoyed a 7-1 cash advantage over Kissell.
For most of 2006, Hayes led by double digits. The turning point came when Kissell’s campaign offered gas at $1.22 a gallon, the same price it was when Hayes was elected to Congress. Kissell gained a huge boost from the Mark Foley scandal in early October. By early November, it was clear Kissell was on the verge of an upset. The combination of the War in Iraq, an unpopular President and Congress also chipped away at Goliath. In the end, Hayes prevailed by the second closest margin in the Country – just 339 votes. Had the DCCC had the foresight to target this race, an provided badly needed financial support, Kissell would have won.
The problem now is what to do in 2008. Taylor’s rematch in 2000 flopped because of the increased conservative turnout. Another factor working against Kissell is that Hayes now understands his vulnerability — he won’t be caught politically sleepwalking like he was in 2006. Recent history isn’t sanguine for comeback candidates like Kissell. In a similarly split district, Pat Casey lost an open seat race to Don Sherwood in 1998 by only 515 votes, but he lost by 6% in 2000.
If the Democrats succeed in passing their agenda and nominate an attractive Presidential candidate like Barack Obama or Bill Richardson, they can win Republican districts like this one. If they remain divided on Iraq and nominate Hillary Clinton, this bellwether district will stick with Rep. Robin Hayes. On Election 2008, watch North Carolina’s Eighth – as the new “Bloody Eighth” goes, so goes the country.
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Should NC-08 be the number one pick up priority in 2008?
If not, which seats are more promising?
There’s quite a bit of food for thought here.
focused on local issues would compel voters to split tickets. If Kissell has the volunteers, the message and the funding to disseminate that message, I imagine voters will still consider him even if the Democratic Party nominee is a dud. I say fund him, and I say allow him to run the camapaign the way he did in 2006. Why not take the risk?
And what of the low turnout? I know the weather was terrible on election day. Do you believe this affected Kissell positively or negatively?